OK, OK, something about poker

I had been at this table for nearly 100 hands. I have a pretty good read on the players, and some of them have been playing way too many hands and betting second best hands, although that is not always clear. One player is seeing 74% of the flops and complaining that he has only won two hands. But, aside from short-stacked Hugo, I am by and large the most conservative player at the table. I am playing a trap game because of all of the calling stations. (Actually, Truko87 is playing a fairly conservative game and has the number of the calling stations as well. I am staying out of his way, and he is reciprocating.)

The villain in this hand is a relative newcomer to the table, and according to the rankings, a newbie. (Why small-rolled players insist on trying the bigger tables is beyond me, except that they may not take the game-learning software very seriously.)

Poker Academy Online #40,258,904
No Limit Texas Holdem ($0.5/$1 NL)
Table Emerald
January 17, 2009

1} ubu roi $120.00 3h 3s
3) Kaschmir $21.13 ?? ??
5) emptytofull * $94.00 ?? ??
7) matth63 $96.95 7c 4d
8) Hugo X $15.57 ?? ??
10) Truk087 $149.92 ?? ??

matth63 posts small blind $0.50
Hugo X posts big blind $1
Truk087 folds
ubu roi calls $1
Kaschmir calls $1
emptytofull calls $1
matth63 calls $0.50
Hugo X checks

FLOP: 5c 2s 6h
matth63 checks
Hugo X checks
ubu roi checks
Kaschmir checks
emptytofull checks

TURN: 5c 2s 6h 3c
matth63 checks
Hugo X checks

Not the best flop for my set. I need to see where I am in the hand and do so in a manner that leaves little room for doubt. By no means does this mean that I'm automatically letting my hand go if someone pushes back.

ubu roi bets $5
Kaschmir folds
emptytofull folds
matth63 raises $7.50

A check-raise. Unfortunately, on PA this could mean anything from a flush draw to a made straight. This is often the challenge at this site and is why it is essential to study other players' tendencies, take note of their stats, etc. The "trend", however, is to overbet a flush draw up front. The check-raise is most likely meant to discourage the flush draw, and therefore I figure he has the straight. I also cannot rule out a bigger set that was checked around on the flop. (Think it odd that I pay as much attention to a play money site players? As I've said in the past, I suffer no illusions that I am still a relative newbie myself. This is my public school, as it were, and I don't see the play at the $200NL being any different.)

There is $17.50 in the pot. If I'm looking at a set of fives or sixes, I'm dead to anything except a 3. But I'm pretty certain I'm looking at a made straight. I have a set, dammit! I have 10 outs, about 2.5 to 1 as it stands, and, given his aggression, if I hit, I stand to win (bigger set = lose) considerably more. After all, I assume I am dealing with a relative newbie at a loose table and Level One thinking predominates.

Hugo X folds
ubu roi calls $7.50

RIVER: 5c 2s 6h 3c 5d
matth63 bets $16
ubu roi raises $31
matth63 raises $36.45 (all-in)
ubu roi calls $36.45
matth63 shows 7c 4d
ubu roi shows 3h 3s

ubu roi wins $193.90 with a Full House, Threes over Fives
$3 raked.

I wonder if he would have gone the distance with a wheel or 6-high straight.