Saturday, November 7, 2009

Draws, redraws and not so bad beats

When listening to and reading about the WSOP ME final table action, pretty soon the latent bug exacerbates and I have to find a table.

I kicked around in the deuce PLO rooms for a bit and mostly spun my wheels, picking up small pots on obvious boards. Then I remembered that it's the weekend in Australia and maybe I could find a buddy to hang with for a bit. Gump was playing .10 PLO and decided to sit down. It was clear I had walked into action and chose a seat to the left of a deep-stacked player I knew to be straightforward and tight. Two to his right was another player I knew, this one as a pre-flop raiser but a poor post-flop player. I had them where I wanted them. The player I was least sure of was the action junkie two to my left.

This player had won a hand just as I entered the room. It was a questionable flush all-in preflop. Not even the nut flush draw and a pair of tens. I knew I'd have to sit tight. So, when I had pocket aces with one suited, I was wholly prepared to raise, see a flop and play it by ear after that. Of course the maniac called, as did another player. I flopped a set of aces, potted it and they came along for the ride. A baby flush took it down and I was out $10. The very next hand I again had a similar set-up with Aces, raised it up, and nut case called. Again I flopped a set, got it all-in against two pair and a highly unlikely straight draw. I was back to even and was now playing deep myself.

It wasn't long before I was put to the test with a set of tens. Lost that one but still had $14 behind. And then this:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from

saw flop | saw showdown

MP2 ($10.35)

MP3 ($9.85)

CO ($6.40)

Button ($30.20)

SB ($8.80)

BB ($5.80)

Hero (UTG) ($14.05)

UTG+1 ($10)

MP1 ($6)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5, A, J, 10

Hero calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, BB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.20, UTG+1 calls $0.20, MP1 calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20

Flop: ($2.10) 4, 3, J (7 players)

SB checks, BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($5.60) A (7 players)

SB bets $5.35, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.35, 2 folds, CO raises to $5.60 (All-In), Button raises to $29.40 (All-In), SB calls $2.65 (All-In), Hero calls $7.90 (All-In)

River: ($45.70) J (4 players, 4 all-in)

Total pot: $45.70 | Rake: $2.25

Main pot: $28 between CO, Button, SB and Hero, won by Hero

Side pot 1: $7.20 between Button, SB and Hero, won by Hero

Side pot 2: $10.50 between Button and Hero, won by Hero


Button had A, 8, 5, 2 (straight, five high).

SB had 5, 2, 6, 4 (straight, five high).

Hero had 5, A, J, 10 (full house, Jacks over Aces).

CO had 7, Q, 8, 6 (one pair, Jacks).

Outcome: Hero won $43.45

I catch a bit of grief from my buddy, Stan, for playing this type of hand. It's because of the dangler.  Yep, even though it's suited, it's a problem, but I'm not looking at that end of my hand. I'm more interested in the other three Broadway cards and the suited Ace. Even so, this is still not my ideal hand with a dangler. I'd much prefer the Ace and dangler be suited, and the J and 10 suited as well. That way I have both the flush and straight potential a little better covered. Still, this is good enough to see a flop when six people have limped before the BB pot-sweetener. How hard I hit the flop will determine where to go next.

With top pair (so what), a gutshot wheel draw, and more importantly, the nut flush draw, I am of course calling the small C-bet by the BB, and I am confident others will follow.  When the Ace hit on the turn, and with the betting going as it was, I knew at least one, and maybe two players at this largely loose table had the wheel. I lost that draw and knew I was behind there. Yet, my calls were not for the straight. I still had two nut draws that others did not. Of course, by the time the Button jammed, I was getting 4 to 1 on my remaining stack, so I was already committed.

SB (the person who had baby-flushed my set of Aces) said, "omg"
ForrestGump said, "consider yurself sumoed"

So, how far out of line was I? To the hand calculator!

The first thing that I noticed about this hand after-the-fact was how utterly atrocious the other plyers' hand were. No doubt I was behind preflop to the intial raiser (nowhere to be found after the turn -- probably Kings in the hole). Yet, my call opened the door, didn't it? As it turns out, I was ahead of all of them preflop. And with the flop, I had a huge lead in the hand, again, against everyone except the pre-flop raiser.

When I input the Ac into the calculator, I received a bit of a shock. Although I was up against one made wheel and one made with room to improve, I was still a 3 to 1 favorite against the next best hand; and in fact, the wheels were behind the CO with his flush draw and gutshot draw! So, getting 4 to 1 on my money, I was good to go.

Omaha is something else, let me tell you.


Memphis MOJO said...

Nice analysis on the hand.

Anonymous said...

Maybe I misunderstand, it sounds like you are saying your hand is a favorite on the turn, but it's actually a 2:1 dog.

On the turn the made wheels will chop it (43.75%). Your hand will win it 34.4%.

Of course, with so many in the pot 34% equity is still plenty good to get it in. nh sir.

bastinptc said...

Anon. - You are correct. So, not so nice analysis, I guess. Like I wrote in the post, I was surprised at the numbers, and that is because I neglected to look at the
"tie" notation in the calculator.