Sunday, April 5, 2009

When scotch meets an empty stomach

Me: "yeeeeee haaaaa" I call the two all-ins.
Gump (railing): "vnh sir"
All-in: "vnh ???"
Buddy Stan: "variance is the square of standard deviation"
G: "means very nice hand in poker lingo"
G: "i knoes the speaky"
A: "very nice ... just draw against 2 draws and 2 nuts ..."
A: "no, just luck"
S: "life IS like a box of chocolates"
G: "he had you by the river dude"
A: "still donk call"
Me:"well, donk or no, good morrow"
G: "ouch"
G: "cleaned out and ran home with the chips"
S: "was actually"

OK, I'll show you the hand.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from

MP1 ($50.85)
MP2 ($23.30)
Hero (MP3) ($38)
CO ($17)
Button ($16.80)
SB ($17.05)
BB ($25)
UTG ($26.10)
UTG+1 ($21.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, 4, A, K

UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 3 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($1.35) 10, K, 6 (5 players)

BB bets $0.75, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.60) A (3 players)

BB bets $2.25, MP2 raises to $6, Hero calls $6, BB raises to $24 (All-In), MP2 calls $16.30 (All-In), Hero calls $18

Any J, K, A (2 of each) or spade.

River: ($73.90) 2 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $73.90 | Rake: $3


BB had 7, 9, Q, J (flush, Ace high).

MP2 mucked Q, 8, J, A (flush, Ace high).

Hero had Q, 4, A, K (flush, Ace high).

Outcome: Hero won $70.90

It will come back to bite me in the ass.


Memphis MOJO said...

I'm no Omaha guy, but it looks like you just got sucked in at each step along the way. Finally the pot was too big to lay it down. Is this accurate?

Buddy Stan: "variance is the square of standard deviation"

ROFL. This guy is way too cool.

bastinptc said...

Oddly enough, in Omaha the 15 or so outs may not be enough to justify a call. I know that I'm up against two made hands on the turn, and one outcome may be a three-way split, which is not enough justification for a call. I'm gambling a bit here, for I am not wanting the straight. However, there is a bit of that notion that my hand "improved" just enough to keep me interested.

Stan quotes that line all of the time. I believe it is Sklansky.

Anonymous said...

From the Desk of Akileos:

What the quote means is that you'll go broke chasing flushes.

You made a minus ev move. In plain English, you played badly.

On the turn you were 72.22 percent to lose and you called.

Let us suppose that a player in a NL Texas Holdem game pushes all in preflop and says, "I have AK suited." Let's say his stack has aproximately 65 BB's.

Let us suppose that your stack consists of 80 BB's and let us further suppose that you look down and see KQ suited.

Were you to believe him and then call his preflop allin with that KQs would mean that once you both flip over your cards --and you see that indeed you were correct in believing him when he said that he had AKsuited-- then your chances to win that hand would be: 72.22%.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s Qd 7h 84 12.61 431 64.71 151 22.67 0.238
Qs 8s Ad Jh 30 4.50 418 62.76 218 32.73 0.208
Ks 4s Ac Qh 334 50.15 261 39.19 71 10.66 0.554

pokenum -o js 9s qd 7h - qs 8s jh ad - ks 4s qh ac -- td kc 6s as
Omaha Hi: 36 enumerated boards containing As 6s Kc Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s Qd 7h 0 0.00 8 22.22 28 77.78 0.380
Qs 8s Ad Jh 0 0.00 8 22.22 28 77.78 0.380
Ks 4s Ac Qh 8 22.22 26 72.22 2 5.56 0.241

Anonymous said...

Make that

for KQsuited to lose a race against AKsuited.

bastinptc said...

Aki - Yeah. The numbers verify it.

Anonymous said...

The fact that you didnt do it yourself worries me.

Anonymous said...

or did you consult a calculator?

Memphis MOJO said...

I used the Omaha odds calculator at Card Player magazine online and I get something completely different. It shows he played it correctly!

Memphis MOJO said...

I used the calculator found here.

Memphis MOJO said...

Anonymous said...

Win: 22.22%
Tie: 5.56%
EE: 0.2

I laboriously inputed the cards at the cardplayer calculator and the odds for his hand, on the turn are 22.22 percent to win and 5.56 to tie. Which means that the rest of the time he loses to the two made straights.


Crash said...

Will bastinptc play differently (while drinking scotch on an empty stomach) as a result of all this analysis? From his initial remarks in the post and in the comments here, he already knew it was a gamble he should have lost. I don't see what all these numbers have taught him.

Crash said...

Now, I could see it if it were 22.23%. THAT would be significant.