Monday, March 1, 2010

An attempt to evaluate

I have spent quite a bit of time looking at the hand I posted yesterday. (Since then, I have lost two buy-ins at Rush, once when my Aces (betting screamed I had ‘em) were cracked by Kings, and another time when K6h 3-bet my Queens, which I 4-bet and he jammed the flop with a flush draw. Happens. Moving on.) Since I know what I had in the hole, I have concentrated on what my opponent had that made him bet the way he did.

I will tell you this: my initial bet was a steal, but it was one of those hands that can, under the right circumstances, leave an opponent computerless, or at least with a broken computer.  It is also one of those hands that had he 3-bet preflop, I would have folded. Yet, as a min-raise is often an invitation to call, I obliged.

The flop is interesting. I have a piece of it. A very small piece of it. He may very well have a bigger piece of it, yet it is sufficiently coordinated that I felt I could quite possibly make him believe otherwise while still controlling the pot size, for I also had a draw. My min-raise accomplishes two things: again, pot control, and let’s me know where I stand in the hand. Again, had his response been more that a measly $.60 more, I would be gone. Could he be trapping with a set of Jacks or nines? Did he even know what he was doing?  Range: 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AJh, AKh, KJh, TQx, Tx, any big heart combo, really; yes, he was most likely on a big draw or stringing me along.

When the Ad came on the turn, I must admit that I was prepared to give up the hand, for surely I was beat so many ways, and assumed this is where he would bring down the hammer. I had to call a buck into a $6 pot? No problem. I suppose I could have re-represented a strong hand as I did on the flop, and I might have taken it down right there. But given his min-raises, I couldn’t be certain he would fold.

The Td made my hand, the idiot end. The really dumb end, as I had 78d. But I might as well have had KQh, TQh or TQx myself right from the start, for that is the type of hand I had represented from the get-go. There is a chance that he had TQ. But if you were him, wouldn’t you have defended against the flush draw better? What I did know was that I beat any set or two pair hand, and his min-raises pretty much eliminated hands that would have made a straight with the ten, which would have been he was raising with a gutshot. Even suited with the gut it is unlikely. No, his trap either ran afoul or he missed his flush draw.

So, why did he bet $4? A blocking bet? Seems a bit much for that. I really had no choice but to fold or raise here. Only two hands beat me, and I didn’t think he had either.


Dave G said...

I think your opponent had pocket 10's. My reason for thinking this is his minimum raise with second pair and open ended straight draw on flop. Value bet/blocking bet on river with 3 of a kind. Your allin told him you made the straight and he was beat, so he folded.

bastinptc said...

As I wrote this out, Dave, I kept adding hands to his range and placed them in the paragraph that contains the list. TT was one of the last ones I added, for as I worked through the hand, once I was at the river I thought to myself, "Ah, yes, pocket tens." It makes sense, preflop onward.