Sunday, October 11, 2009

Left hanging

Thinking that I might have to change the order of avocations if I didn't post more poker soon, I encountered this hand just in time to save the edit.

It's the PLO round in the 8 Game. I limp on the Button after the CO does. The SB raises the pot size. The SB is full of shit, raising every hand. I have already stacked him in NLHE when he 3-bet my preflop raise and his post-flop bullets fired made no sense. In this hand, the CO, a fairly tight player, calls, and I do as well with Th2dKdQc. Three Broadways with a second nut flush. Is the 2d an issue? (When is a dangler a dangler?) Is the Kd good enough? I will make that determination on the flop.

The flop is 7dAhJd. I now have a hand. Any 10, K, Q or diamond. The SB bets the pot, CO calls, and so do I.

The turn is the 9h and I pick up more outs with any 8. The SB shuts down and the CO goes all-in with his last $4.83. There is now over $11.00 in the pot. Do I call? If he holds two hearts, my 8h, Qh and Kh outs are no good. He may in fact hold any of them.  He may also now have a Jack-high straight and be freerolling to the flush. Heck, he may even have the nut diamond draw in there with a set of some kind. Whatever he has, he feels good about it. Easy fold or is the roughly 2.5:1 good enough?

My next question concerns the SB. He still has about $7.50 behind. If I call, will he do so as well, thereby making my odds to call that much better? I take a chance. The SB folds.

The river is a 3s and the CO shows a set of Jacks with 7cAsJhJs.

I ran this hand through the Card Player Omaha calculator to see what was what. Preflop I'm 44/55. Not too unusual in Omaha. On the flop I'm even money, even though he hits his set. I slip to 42/57 on the turn. The Hand Calculator, of course is useful in hindsight, so let's see what I had available to me to make my hand, and for him to improve.

He did not have a heart draw, so that opens it back up for me. However, any 7,  9 or Ace gives him a boat, and the remaining J, quads. That's seven outs to improve. That leaves me with four 8s, three 10s,  two Queens, and two Kings, and four baby diamonds (3-6). 15 outs. 

How could I not call?


Memphis MOJO said...

I'm not very Omaha sophisticated, but it looks to me like you played it correctly on every street, or at least after the flop. Right?

Anonymous said...

I fold the turn.

I don't have the nut flush draw and I don't have a made hand.

The dynamics changed on the turn. When that happens flopping is seldom a huge mistake.

As to whether a baby that works with a a second nut flush is a dangler or not is a matter of semantics only up to a point.



Anonymous said...

If you want to increase your readership, it strikes me that commenting on current events can't possibly hurt.
Current events that you care about, that is.

Anonymous said...

meant to say "folding is seldom a big mistake"

bastinptc said...

I tanked for a bit on this hand, and a little voice inside said I was gambling. That should have been been a clue.

As for current events, I am interested only to a point, and have opinions that lack authority of research or scholarship. I already write about what I care about, increased readership be hanged. (Yeah, I know, a breakthrough.)