Thursday, March 19, 2009

I had outs…

One of Hwang’s key concepts is the notion that one may have to fold when ahead, or when one even suspect he has the best hand at the moment. The reason: no redraws. Well, I the hand below, I knew what I was up against and decided to gamble just because the pot would have been sooooo sweet.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from

MP1 ($11.50)
MP2 ($24.25)
CO ($21.55)
Button ($34.95)
SB ($13.45)
BB ($21.95)
UTG ($13.35)
Hero (UTG+1) ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 3, Q, J, J

1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($1.35) J, 8, 9 (5 players)

BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button raises to $2.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.30, MP1 raises to $10.75, 1 fold, Button raises to $34.70 (All-In), Hero calls $21.70 (All-In), MP1 calls $0.50 (All-In)

Turn: ($60.85) 6 (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($60.85) 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $60.85 | Rake: $3


Button had Q, K, 4, 10 (flush, King high).

Hero had 3, Q, J, J (three of a kind, Jacks).

MP1 mucked Q, 8, K, 10 (straight, Queen high).

Outcome: Button won $57.85

Preflop: 50%.74% to win
Flop: 38.74% to win
Turn: 25% and other two could still tie.

Had I raised preflop (unlikely with my suited, dangling 3h), I imagine both players still would have called. It was a pretty loose game, which is also the reason I came in early with the type of hand I did. I was looking to hit the flop hard and trap.

When I ran the hand through the Omaha calculator at, I was somewhat surprised that I was still a 3:1 favorite when all of the money went in on the flop, so it wasn't such a bad move after all... Maybe. It helped that both opponents had basically the same hand. All I needed to do was pair the board or spike the case J. This is Omaha; it could happen.


Anonymous said...

Just wondering about this:

The odds calculator says you are 38.74% to win on the flop. Why do you call that a 3:1 favorite? Looks a lot closer to a 2:1 dog to me.


bastinptc said...

Wishful thinking? Not thinking?

As you know, math is not my strong point.