Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Three days remain

On my free trial of Poker Co-Pilot, a tracking software for us Mac-abled. has being able to see my opponents' VPIP/PFR/Agg helped? I believe it has, for it is difficult to keep any semblance of a notion for the first stat in my head. Not only that, but the program has shown just how little attention I pay to my opponents. Maybe it's the micros, and being such, one doesn't have to be too sophisticated. I know a maniac, a calling station and a rock when I see them; yet there is so much more, which until now, I hadn't bothered with.

Still, now that I have the data, what can I do with it? How does one play against a 85/3/67 who has position? In a lot of ways, my education has just begun.

Oh, and I can post charts!

Pretty good, huh? Except for that pesky Non-showdown winnings line. Before I had the software, I had no idea that there was a problem there. I was just playing the way I play, making good calls and folds on the river. Even after I looked at the chart for a couple weeks I still wasn't too concerned with a more or less steady climb. Eventually, however, I had to ask myself: What's with the NSW?

See that little hump toward the end of the graph line? That was me betting with position to isolate. See the down side? That's me betting with draws that didn't get there and c-bets that were not believed.And as an argument in favor of position, below is the same chart isolating my plays from the Button.

I know some of my readers use tracking software and are used to looking at charts like those above. This babe in the woods would appreciate any comments. In the meantime, I think I'll go ahead and purchase the software.


Forrest Gump said...

NSW is 'pots won without showdown right'? That's a very weird graph. I would have expected a gradual up-slope for a winning player?

This is the session I'm playing now.
317 hands
Pots won at showdown - 6 of 7 (85%)
Pots won without showdown - 20

(Note the pot lost at showdown was an under-set for over a buyin...stats can be deceiving!)

Forrest Gump said...

(or the winning you collect when u dont see a showdown i mean, minus what u lose from chasing and folding the turn/river?)

Crash said...

Absolutely fascinating. As a fellow Mac user, I will sure check this out. I have never even thought about this kind of software.

On the c-bets, here is what I do, which is probably kindergarten to you: In order to make a c-bet, I must have bet or raised preflop and the flop must have the appearance that I could have hit something, and the flop must not look too dangerous, such as having an ace when I don't. I have great luck, I think, using c-bets.

Crash said...

Classless brag: It's been a good time for me the last couple of months. Played for an hour or so last night at FT, using the aggression system and the above c-bet ideas. $10 profit. Lest your readers think I am a jerk for mentioning this....oh, what the hell, I AM a jerk!

TenMile said...

Okay. Thanks. That was a only a side thought. When those things first came out they didn't really dry all that well.

bastinptc said...

FG - Yes, stats can be deceiving, and that's where the graphs help. There is some literature online about NSW, and it seems that not every winner has a positive "red line." (Mine is green. Poker Tracker's is red, hence the term." I may win more at showdown because of the trap/thin value bet game I tend to play. Still, the negative NSW may be a hole in my game as I tend to not take advantage of position when I have it.

Crash - Hey, you're running good, go ahead and crow.

How big are your c-bets? I tend to c-bet about 80% of the pot on a dry board (implying a made hand). My thinking is that if they can call a bet that big, then I know where I stand. More often than not, I take the pot right there. If I'm out of position and there are multiple players still in the hand, then the c-bet is put on the back burner. If the board shows potential, it is turned into a semi-bluff.

All very rudimentary.

Crash said...

bastin-One of the few other things I remember from my Negreanu book is that he says you can get just as much information from a 1/2 pot c-bet as from a larger one. I don't remember his rationale. I will check it. Anyway, I use 1/2 pot. And, like you, this very often wins the pot.

These are generally $25 nlhe games, the last few nights at FTP. Waiting to see JDKGATOR! Royal Flush, no less.

joxum said...

the thing I like the most about my Hold'em Manager (apart from the fact that it came almost for free), is that my hands are organized and easy to replay and analyze.

I have my HUD up most of the time, but playing heads up, there's rarely much time to study the numbers in detail.


Forrest Gump said...

Jox, how did u get HM almost for free? Am looking to buy it myself.

bastinptc said...

FG - In case he doesn't see this, I believe I remember him writing that he signed up for a site and rec'd his copy for doing so, hence "almost free."

BLAARGH! said...

I'm late to the game here, just found your blog through joxum's blog....

If you haven't bought co-pilot yet, you might want to consider Holdem Manager. I used co pilot for a while, but found it VERY limiting in terms of the amount of information you can sift through and the HUD was a bit disappointing. I'm sure it's gotten a bit better lately, but still no match for HEM or PTR if you are at all serious about using stats to improve your game.

If you have an intel mac, you can easily run HEM through parallels, boot camp or... (I forget the other emulator)... I use parallels.

As for your redline, it would be great to get it to even, but there are tons of winning players that are negative. It's probably showing that you're not aggressive enough, maybe need to 2 or 3 barrel more instead of giving up. It's not a problem at 10NL or 25NL, but will be when you move up. I have the exact opposite problem - I'm far too aggressive and my redline is about even with my blueline.

(nice photos btw!)

BLAARGH! said...

oh, and just for kicks, I'll give your stats a look...
You're at 23/6/1... you limp WAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY too much (pfr=6%). Open up Pokerstove and take a look at what 6% of hands looks like. If I see you raise at my table, I know almost exactly what you're holding. I'm going to cold call you with just about any drawing hand and crack your aces just about every time, or fold my marginal hands that I might have otherwise played. If I see you limp my button, I'm going to 3bet you. 23/20 or 23/19 would be much better to aim for, obviously way lower vpip EP and way higher on the button.
Your went to showdown is low. It means you're giving up to easily. And believe it or not, I think your won at showdown is a little high (I'd have to double check that, I could be wrong). To anyone paying attention (meaning NO ONE at 10NL) If I see you call or raise me past the flop, I know you hit and I can fold without a second thought.
Your won without showdown is low, you can already see that from your negative redline.
Your 3bet is super low. should be closer to 7 or 8%. Right now you only 3bet AA, KK, AK, and maybe QQ. (Am I right?)
Call PFR is too high, don't cold call, RAISE or FOLD! There are definitely exceptions to this, but it's a good rule of thumb.
Also, all of this depends on who's at your table. I often find myself at 8/8 at one table and 32/28 at another depending on the conditions and the cards I'm getting. After a couple hundred hands though, it usually evens out to about 23/19

Having said all that, 27bb/100 is a pretty great winrate - but you will get creamed playing this way at higher levels. Does co-pilot have an EV stat? You may just be on a super heater, hard to say after only 4k hands. I maintained about 23bb/100 over 12k hands at 10NL (moved up after that) and I had leaks you could drive a mac truck through.

I hope this helps a little, this is the kind of thing that these stats are good for.

Oh, and crash... cbet the hell out of flops that are rags with an Ace (unless you're against an "Ace master". It's more than likely that the Ace scares them more than you! You raised preflop, you HAVE to have that Ace, right? ;) (and you DID raise preflop, didn't you?)

bastinptc said...

Blaargh - Thanks for the time you spent with my stats. Yeah, I'm weak tight as hell, which has become even more apparent to me with the access to stats...any stats. I have started to raise a bit more preflop, which is a start... I know I need to be more aggressive, but it IS .10 you know. I see some crazy shit that makes me want to play 9/8/25 like all of the other grinders. Ace rag to the river just to see if one can spike an Ace? C'mon! Then again, those are the folks that give me a 27/100.

As for Copilot, I am pre-Intel on a very limited budget, which may explain why I have to use CP and am weak-tight. (At least I've never had to put more $ into my accounts, which must count for something.)

Crash said...

BLAARGH-Thanks. I'll add that flopped Ace to my c-bet list. At least for a while!

BLAARGH! said...

No problem at all.

And for both you and crash... As for the upped aggression, you need to couple it with a good idea of who you're playing against. You're going to treat an 85/2/0 way differently than an 85/75/inf, one is a passive fish, the other a complete psycho. When you know your opponents tendencies, you know how to bet them for max value (which is what you should be going for at 10NL). You should rarely have to bluff at all, but when you do, know who and why you're bluffing.
Hah! This almost makes me sound like I know what I'm talking about!

Forrest Gump said...

I think most of us are at the level where there's not right or wrong solutions but different approaches. In some hands, i see B's play as very aggressive and tournament-esque yet on another i'm scratching my head going "Sweet mercy, why aren't your chips in the middle already"?

B, thanks for bring up the 'thin red line' - i need to investigate what my stats are for this. I have a feeling its also a significant leak.


bastinptc said...

FG - I'd be interested in some examples of the latter type of hands you mention. Are you saying that some of those AAxx PLO hands are damn the torpedoes?

As for xx/xx/xx considerations, I imagine I have some studying to do.

Forrest Gump said...

Was referring to NLH as we have different styles. As for PLO, you're further down the path than me - but with AAxx, esp. with a suited ace, I'm always looking for a spot to get it all in preflop.

A typical example might be middle-late position with AAxx (rags, one suit) and an aggro player behind me. I love to limp behind them, let the aggro player raise then jam as much of my stack as i can. If i'm basically freerolled against a better AAxx so be it. If i'm against 9TJQ thats just a cooler and I'm not in such bad shape. What else am i afraid of? And there's a whole bunch of hands that players at 25PLO and under will call of stacks with.

Seems to be working out or maybe i'm just running good. ;)


PS I recall an interesting arguement from someone asking if you had AAAA (the nuts with no chance of improving) are you jamming preflop 100% of the time given the opportunity?

bastinptc said...

FG - See I would think of your "PS" as a joke. I may get it all in and expect to be beat by two pair, jacks and fives.

Forrest Gump said...

Sorry, i wasn't clear. The example was about smooth calling behind a bunch of limped for overset value. but should the aggressive player throw out a raise, there's now enough in the middle to get most your stack out there. A standard raise in this spot puts you in a horrible situation because they love to call but you rarely see anyone 4bet.


Hand Pot equity
AAAA 51.51%
9TJQ 48.49%

Hand Pot equity
AAAA 47.43%
9sTsJdQd 52.57%

Hand Pot equity
AdAc4s9c 58.23%
9sTsJdQd 41.77%

Hand Pot equity
AdAc4s9c 41.12%
AsAhTsTh 58.88%

Crash said...

Since I have permission:
FTP tonight. Began with tight aggressive. Lost my $25 buy in to AA. Reloaded. Stayed TAG for a while, started to win big with the aggression, switched to LAG to take advantage of the image. Left with $75, a $25 profit in an hour and a half.
[The cbet on the flop with an Ace never came up.] But I do feel that, as stated before, get a TAG image, then switch gears and rake it in for a while, then get out, or downshift.
Starting to think this game can be won by playing in position and being aggressive, especially if you start being aggressive when you do have the goods. Later, you can be aggressive, and win, with junk.
BLAARGH!, am interested in how you feel about such a simplistic approach.
I never get much response from others when I put this forth.

BLAARGH! said...

>>>Starting to think this game can be won by playing in position and being aggressive

That's it in a nutshell right there. All you ever need to know to win at the micros. If you want to crush at the micros, play a bit more LAG. True LAG just means opening up slightly or not at all EP, and a bit more in position, but on the flop you are playing your same TAG game and not getting yourself into stupid situations (small hand, small pot etc...)

What you described (tight/loose/tight) is a good general structure, but the best thing is to just stay aware of the table dynamics at all times. When something changes, you adapt. If someone starts playing back at you, slow down. If they refuse to adapt to your game, keep hammering them.

BTW, don't cbet Ace flops to a station, they'll call you to the river with 3rd pair, it ain't worth it. The point is, there are tons of cbetting opportunities, they don't always work, but keep looking for them.

Sorry Bastin, I'm writing a damn book here!